Amama Mbabazi vs President Museveni: The inside story

As members of the NRM Parliamentary Caucus return to Kampala this weekend at the end of a 10-day retreat, the biggest question is whether Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi’s last-minute endorsement of his boss, President Museveni for another term, was an act of defeat or a tactical retreat to gather his troops scattered by the surprise fire he faced in Kyankwanzi?

The man who has for long cast an image of infallibility, looked on in surprise as people he had counted on as allies, jumped to the microphone to reveal he had been planning a surprise shot at his boss using the very party structures he was supposed to be mobilising.

By the time most newspapers went to press on Tuesday, at least 190 MPs had signed onto the Evelyn Anite (Northern Youth MP) resolution, urging President Museveni to stand again in 2016 as the sole NRM flag bearer, raising speculation that the battle lines had been drawn and Mr Mbabazi had chosen not to endorse the move. But a few minutes to 10:00pm on Tuesday, another list was released indicating Mr Mbabazi was signatory number 202 on the endorsement document, behind Vice President Edward Kiwanuka Ssekandi at 201.

But what events played behind the scenes? While many were surprised by Anite’s proposal at the luncheon at the presidential farm in Ngoma Sub-county in Nakaseke District, where the MPs had been taken for a tour, the plan had been long in coming.

Lunch at Ngoma farm
The Saturday afternoon lunch was to spark a series of events that left Mr Mbabazi and his camp dumbstruck. After the luncheon, Ms Anite was asked by the deputy Caucus chair and MP for Ndorwa West, Mr David Bahati, to move a vote of thanks for the lunch the President had served them. Having thanked the President for the meal, Ms Anite took a surprise turn asking Mr Museveni to accept that NRM fields him as the sole candidate in the 2016 presidential elections without going through the process of primaries. This was greeted by clapping, first from a few members, and eventually nearly everyone present. Many, however, seemed confused and surprised by the move.

Earlier on the opening day of the retreat, President Museveni had spoken about creeping intrigue which was dividing the party because some party leaders were jostling for positions.

On return to Kyankwanzi, invigorated by the response she had gotten at the farm, Ms Anite and her team moved to have the resolution formalised. It is here that speaker after speaker revealed details of meetings and planning that Mr Mbabazi had reportedly been involved in as he schemed for a presidential bid in 2016.

Well-placed sources in the party told Sunday Monitor that the Kyankwanzi retreat for MPs and indeed a larger party meeting of the National Executive Committee (NEC) had been severally postponed after intelligence briefs to Mr Museveni warned of a surprise upset.

“NEC should have met like six months ago but the party chairman got intelligence information that if he called it, he would have been upstaged and literally thrown out of the party,” a source told this writer. It is then that Mr Museveni reportedly started working on his own strike back.

This newspaper has seen a dossier, one of many, according to our sources, that the President received just before the Kyankwanzi retreat, which partly dictated the urgency to deal with the Mbabazi question.

At least three issues stand out of the brief, a copy of which this newspaper has seen: Mr Mbabazi’s alleged mobilisation efforts, his financial muscle and access to important foreign constituencies referred to as “increased visibility with diplomats, especially from Western European countries”.

The two-page brief refers to a subject named “India”— apparently the codename for Mr Mbabazi – detailing his alleged schemes. “For a while now, may be two years, fairly accurate information has been coming in that India has, instead of organising his family [NRM], is busy erecting structures for a possible 2016 bid,” the brief reads in its introduction.

“NRM structures throughout the country are in shambles since the last elections which bred many fallouts. The friction and paralysis in Parliament and the apparent non-functional and alert executive, is partly attributed to an increasing feeling that he has isolated some ministers, including those within his docket.”

“At OPM [Office of the Prime Minister], there are no regular meetings between India and other ministers who often get assigned through his secretaries or personal assistants. It will be a matter of time before disagreements between India and the ministers explode,” the intelligence brief adds.