It’s June 2016. Time to think about the 2020 election.
The 2016 GOP convention is still weeks away, but would-be contenders — from Ted Cruz to Tom Cotton — are already laying groundwork for the next Republican presidential primary. While some are lining up blue-chip staff, scheduling trips to early primary states and setting up political action committees, others are huddling with the party’s biggest financiers.
But they’re all struggling with the same conundrum: how to get around Donald Trump.
It’s a complex calculation. Whether they choose to support Trump or to oppose him — or something in between — future Republican candidates could find themselves explaining their decision for years to come.
The pitfalls are obvious: Throw your support to Trump, and be tied to him. Buck him, and risk turning off his supporters.
“Trump will have a very negative impact on our brand, and what potential candidates do regarding Trump could impact them in the 2020 general election,” said Jason Roe, a veteran Republican strategist who advised Marco Rubio during this year’s primary. “On the other hand, not getting behind Trump will hurt them in the 2020 primary. It’s a tough spot for our party and those candidates.”
Here is POLITICO’s look at the Republican class of 2020 — and how it is maneuvering around Trump.
The Never Trump crowd
Perhaps no one has been more public about a desire to run than Cruz. Just days after exiting the primary, the Texas senator — who continues to regularly confer with his top campaign aides — released a nostalgia-filled video that recounted emotional moments from the campaign before concluding: “To be continued.”
Cruz is already taking steps to expand his base, meeting with establishment power players who gave him the cold shoulder. Last month, Cruz attended the Kentucky Derby as the guest of Joe and Kelly Craft, major Republican Party donors who backed Rubio. The Crafts also happen to be close to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Cruz nemesis.
Cruz still isn’t budging from his refusal to endorse Trump. During an interview with an Oklahoma radio station on May 27, Cruz said he was still “looking and listening” to the presumptive nominee, before adding that he was “deeply concerned for our country.” He said voters would have to go through “prayer” before deciding whether Trump has earned their vote.
Trump has yet to personally ask the senator for his support, according to one senior Cruz strategist. (A Trump spokeswoman, Hope Hicks, declined to comment.)
The 2020 calculations, though, continue. Cruz’s team is pushing to make a splash at the convention — and get the senator plenty of headlines, whether he ends up with a prime-time speaking slot or not. Former Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, a top adviser, is pushing to seat Cruz delegates on the committee that’s charged with writing the party’s official platform.
Cruz, however, has been far less strident in his opposition to Trump than another possible 2020 contender, Nebraska Sen. Ben Sasse. The previously little known first-term lawmaker has turned himself into a social media sensation, taking to Twitter to blast the presumptive Republican nominee. Unlike Cruz, Sasse — who’s maintained a stable of national GOP strategists that includes Jordan Gehrke and Fred Davis — has said outright that he won’t vote for Trump and has called for a third-party candidate to enter the race.
Such an approach could have its downsides.
“The fact remains, if you are not for Trump, and Hillary Clinton wins, then you run the risk of taking the blame for handing the election to the Democrats,” said Eric Fehrnstrom, who was senior adviser on Mitt Romney’s 2012 bid. “That's going to be one giant albatross hanging around your neck.”
Maybe Trump
Scott Walker isn’t a fan of the real estate mogul — he’s made that clear. But he’s also been relatively measured.
The Wisconsin governor backed Cruz in the primary and has scoffed at the notion of being Trump’s VP, calling it “breathtaking.” Yet Walker has also said he would support Trump if he’s the nominee.
While Walker has kept his remarks on Trump to a minimum, he’s taken steps to rehabilitate his political career following his short-lived presidential bid. Walker, the Republican Governors Association vice chairman, is crisscrossing the country to raise money for governors — and introducing himself to donors who could be helpful to him. He’s now seen as the favorite to serve as RGA chairman during the 2018 election, when 36 governors races will be on the ballot.
Many in Wisconsin and Washington political circles say they expect Walker to seek a third term that year. Last week, he launched a redesigned website. In an email to supporters, Walker wrote that the new site will allow him to stay in touch “with conservatives across Wisconsin and our nation.”
Also keeping a low profile on all things Trump: Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton.
Cotton has indicated he’ll support the New York businessman if Trump’s the nominee, though the senator hasn’t gone out of his way to praise or criticize him. It’s all part of what Cotton aides describe as a deliberate strategy. While cozying up to Trump makes little sense (the hawkish Cotton differs from Trump on foreign policy issues), neither does distancing himself (there’s little to be gained by alienating his backers).
When Cotton headlined the South Carolina Republican Party’s Silver Elephant Dinner last month, attendees were more struck by what he didn’t say than what he did — nowhere did he mention Trump’s name.
Like Cruz, Cotton has been forward in his aspirations. Since he was elected to the Senate in 2014, he’s traveled to Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. His aides are building out an aggressive travel schedule in the weeks to come. Next week, Cotton will venture to Southern California to appear before an Orange County GOP gathering. And in August, according to a Cotton spokeswoman, he will be a guest at a motorcycle-and-barbecue-themed political event hosted by Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst. At the Republican National Convention in July, he’s expected to address a number of state delegations.
Cotton is also expanding his political team. One recent hire, according to a source familiar with Cotton’s staff moves: Dorinda Moss, a former National Republican Senatorial Committee finance director who was a top fundraiser on Rubio’s 2016 campaign. (Neither Moss nor a Cotton spokesperson would comment.)
He recently launched a new political action committee, the Republican Majority Fund, which will allow him to raise money for down-ballot candidates.
On the bandwagon
When it comes to criticizing Trump, few were more pointed than Rubio. During the primary, the Florida senator derided Trump as a spray-tanned “con artist,” even joking about the size of his hands.
Yet in recent days, Rubio — perhaps reluctantly — has undergone something of a conversion. During a CNN interview that aired May 29, the Florida senator vowed to support Trump, even saying he’d speak on his behalf at the convention. He also revealed that he’d privately apologized to Trump for his hands jab.
Whether Rubio decides to make another presidential run — and in the CNN interview, he indicated he was open to it — there are signs he’s interested in keeping his nationwide donor network intact. Since departing the contest, the senator has stayed in touch with some of his top financiers, including hedge fund manager Paul Singer and lobbyist Wayne Berman.
On Thursday, House Speaker Paul Ryan, another possible 2020 contender, got on the Trump train. After weeks of withholding his endorsement, Ryan, the 2012 VP nominee, wrote in an op-ed that he and Trump “have more common ground than disagreement.”
As endorsements go, Ryan’s was a lukewarm one. He unveiled it while Clinton was delivering a much-publicized foreign policy speech, perhaps a deliberate attempt to bury it.
That the speaker would deliver such a tepid endorsement didn’t surprise many of those close to him.
Last month, Ryan gathered his top donors to an exclusive retreat at The Palace, a luxury hotel in New York City near Rockefeller Center. The two-day event, which drew major GOP contributors like Los Angeles businessman Marc Stern, was packed with policy briefings, an update on the congressional Republican agenda, a cocktail reception and a “Dessert and Conversation.”
The 2016 GOP convention is still weeks away, but would-be contenders — from Ted Cruz to Tom Cotton — are already laying groundwork for the next Republican presidential primary. While some are lining up blue-chip staff, scheduling trips to early primary states and setting up political action committees, others are huddling with the party’s biggest financiers.
It’s a complex calculation. Whether they choose to support Trump or to oppose him — or something in between — future Republican candidates could find themselves explaining their decision for years to come.
The pitfalls are obvious: Throw your support to Trump, and be tied to him. Buck him, and risk turning off his supporters.
“Trump will have a very negative impact on our brand, and what potential candidates do regarding Trump could impact them in the 2020 general election,” said Jason Roe, a veteran Republican strategist who advised Marco Rubio during this year’s primary. “On the other hand, not getting behind Trump will hurt them in the 2020 primary. It’s a tough spot for our party and those candidates.”
Here is POLITICO’s look at the Republican class of 2020 — and how it is maneuvering around Trump.
The Never Trump crowd
Perhaps no one has been more public about a desire to run than Cruz. Just days after exiting the primary, the Texas senator — who continues to regularly confer with his top campaign aides — released a nostalgia-filled video that recounted emotional moments from the campaign before concluding: “To be continued.”
Cruz is already taking steps to expand his base, meeting with establishment power players who gave him the cold shoulder. Last month, Cruz attended the Kentucky Derby as the guest of Joe and Kelly Craft, major Republican Party donors who backed Rubio. The Crafts also happen to be close to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Cruz nemesis.
Cruz still isn’t budging from his refusal to endorse Trump. During an interview with an Oklahoma radio station on May 27, Cruz said he was still “looking and listening” to the presumptive nominee, before adding that he was “deeply concerned for our country.” He said voters would have to go through “prayer” before deciding whether Trump has earned their vote.
Trump has yet to personally ask the senator for his support, according to one senior Cruz strategist. (A Trump spokeswoman, Hope Hicks, declined to comment.)
The 2020 calculations, though, continue. Cruz’s team is pushing to make a splash at the convention — and get the senator plenty of headlines, whether he ends up with a prime-time speaking slot or not. Former Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, a top adviser, is pushing to seat Cruz delegates on the committee that’s charged with writing the party’s official platform.
Cruz, however, has been far less strident in his opposition to Trump than another possible 2020 contender, Nebraska Sen. Ben Sasse. The previously little known first-term lawmaker has turned himself into a social media sensation, taking to Twitter to blast the presumptive Republican nominee. Unlike Cruz, Sasse — who’s maintained a stable of national GOP strategists that includes Jordan Gehrke and Fred Davis — has said outright that he won’t vote for Trump and has called for a third-party candidate to enter the race.
Such an approach could have its downsides.
“The fact remains, if you are not for Trump, and Hillary Clinton wins, then you run the risk of taking the blame for handing the election to the Democrats,” said Eric Fehrnstrom, who was senior adviser on Mitt Romney’s 2012 bid. “That's going to be one giant albatross hanging around your neck.”
Maybe Trump
Scott Walker isn’t a fan of the real estate mogul — he’s made that clear. But he’s also been relatively measured.
The Wisconsin governor backed Cruz in the primary and has scoffed at the notion of being Trump’s VP, calling it “breathtaking.” Yet Walker has also said he would support Trump if he’s the nominee.
While Walker has kept his remarks on Trump to a minimum, he’s taken steps to rehabilitate his political career following his short-lived presidential bid. Walker, the Republican Governors Association vice chairman, is crisscrossing the country to raise money for governors — and introducing himself to donors who could be helpful to him. He’s now seen as the favorite to serve as RGA chairman during the 2018 election, when 36 governors races will be on the ballot.
Many in Wisconsin and Washington political circles say they expect Walker to seek a third term that year. Last week, he launched a redesigned website. In an email to supporters, Walker wrote that the new site will allow him to stay in touch “with conservatives across Wisconsin and our nation.”
Also keeping a low profile on all things Trump: Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton.
Cotton has indicated he’ll support the New York businessman if Trump’s the nominee, though the senator hasn’t gone out of his way to praise or criticize him. It’s all part of what Cotton aides describe as a deliberate strategy. While cozying up to Trump makes little sense (the hawkish Cotton differs from Trump on foreign policy issues), neither does distancing himself (there’s little to be gained by alienating his backers).
When Cotton headlined the South Carolina Republican Party’s Silver Elephant Dinner last month, attendees were more struck by what he didn’t say than what he did — nowhere did he mention Trump’s name.
Like Cruz, Cotton has been forward in his aspirations. Since he was elected to the Senate in 2014, he’s traveled to Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. His aides are building out an aggressive travel schedule in the weeks to come. Next week, Cotton will venture to Southern California to appear before an Orange County GOP gathering. And in August, according to a Cotton spokeswoman, he will be a guest at a motorcycle-and-barbecue-themed political event hosted by Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst. At the Republican National Convention in July, he’s expected to address a number of state delegations.
Cotton is also expanding his political team. One recent hire, according to a source familiar with Cotton’s staff moves: Dorinda Moss, a former National Republican Senatorial Committee finance director who was a top fundraiser on Rubio’s 2016 campaign. (Neither Moss nor a Cotton spokesperson would comment.)
He recently launched a new political action committee, the Republican Majority Fund, which will allow him to raise money for down-ballot candidates.
On the bandwagon
When it comes to criticizing Trump, few were more pointed than Rubio. During the primary, the Florida senator derided Trump as a spray-tanned “con artist,” even joking about the size of his hands.
Yet in recent days, Rubio — perhaps reluctantly — has undergone something of a conversion. During a CNN interview that aired May 29, the Florida senator vowed to support Trump, even saying he’d speak on his behalf at the convention. He also revealed that he’d privately apologized to Trump for his hands jab.
Whether Rubio decides to make another presidential run — and in the CNN interview, he indicated he was open to it — there are signs he’s interested in keeping his nationwide donor network intact. Since departing the contest, the senator has stayed in touch with some of his top financiers, including hedge fund manager Paul Singer and lobbyist Wayne Berman.
On Thursday, House Speaker Paul Ryan, another possible 2020 contender, got on the Trump train. After weeks of withholding his endorsement, Ryan, the 2012 VP nominee, wrote in an op-ed that he and Trump “have more common ground than disagreement.”
As endorsements go, Ryan’s was a lukewarm one. He unveiled it while Clinton was delivering a much-publicized foreign policy speech, perhaps a deliberate attempt to bury it.
That the speaker would deliver such a tepid endorsement didn’t surprise many of those close to him.
Last month, Ryan gathered his top donors to an exclusive retreat at The Palace, a luxury hotel in New York City near Rockefeller Center. The two-day event, which drew major GOP contributors like Los Angeles businessman Marc Stern, was packed with policy briefings, an update on the congressional Republican agenda, a cocktail reception and a “Dessert and Conversation.”
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